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Elevated Risk of Flooding in the Next 5 Weeks
At the onset of the storm on Sunday March 6, 2011, the water level of the Schoharie Reservoir stood @ 1115’ or 15’ below the Gilboa Dam spillway crest el. of 1130’ above sea level. Due to unusually warm weather followed by rain, the water level of the reservoir rose 13.5’ in just over 24 hours to crest at el. 1128.53’ on Monday, March 7, 2011 around 9:00 am. Both praise and gratitude are in order for USGS, which had forecast, on Sat., March 5, 2011, the reservoir water level to reach 1128.2 by Monday morning. The hydrograph at Gilboa is an invaluable predictive tool that provides the public with an accurate estimate of the potential impact of storm forecasts for the Schoharie Creek downstream of the Gilboa Dam. This is good news!
The bad news is that the March 6, 2011 storm left in its wake, as it departed, a very dense snow pack in the Schoharie Creek drainage basin, both above and below the Gilboa Dam. Thus, the snowmelt that occurred prior to the rain has been replaced by another very “ripe” snowpack. The National Weather Service, Albany office on Friday, March 11, 2011, will release an interim winter/spring potential flood outlook. This will bring us up to date on the flood hazards facing streams above and below the Gilboa Dam in the coming weeks.
If you visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service link on the DCC, Inc. website, you can see on any of the Schoharie USGS Hydrograph pages for the Schoharie Creek drainage that 4 of the top 5 floods recorded in our basin were winter/spring, snowmelt/rain, induced floods. Heavy rain is a possibility this week, March 10 & 11 and unfortunately a probability in the next 5 weeks. The “void” that existed in the Schoharie Reservoir prior to the most recent flood is gone for the year, as the siphons are not really able to keep up with snowmelt in the coming weeks over the 314 sq. mile Schoharie Reservoir catchment. Our Sincere thanks to NYCDEP in their effective use of the siphons to reduce water level in the Schoharie Reservoir and here is hoping that the area is not plagued with either abundant rain or a precipitously rapid thaw. Hope is not much of a strategy so please “stay tuned” to this website for the latest news on Schoharie Creek water levels.