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Not to be a Pill, but...
Quoting from the Area Forecast Discussion of 5:10 pm, Sunday, March 14th, “This storm (weekend of March 13 & 14) brought marginal problems to our region... as much as 3.5” of rain fell in New Hartford, Conn and up to 10” of snow on the summit of Windham Mt. (this high peak is at the headwaters of the Bataviakill, a major tributary of the Upper Schoharie)...even so we dodged the bullet”. This pretty well sums up last weekend's storm and we are entitled to heave a collective sigh of relief and even feel a bit elated at our good fortune. We have nothing but the deepest sympathy for those adversely affected by this storm and ask that all who read this keep its victims in your thoughts and prayers. One shudders to even think about what the water levels would have been at the Gilboa Dam if the 3.5 inches that fell at New Hartford or the 4+ inches that fell in New Jersey had “socked” the 314 sq. mile drainage above the Schoharie Reservoir.
The increased threat to areas South and East of the Catskills was accurately predicted by NWA Senior Hydrologist Steve DiRienzo and NYCDEP Regional Engineer Mark Suttmeier at the March 10 DCC, Inc. Annual Meeting in Fultonham, NY. The next two week outlook for potential flooding will be issued by NWS this Friday, March 19th. It is forecast #6 and will remain in effect until Friday, April 2nd. The forecast for the upcoming week looks tranquil until at least Sunday, March 21 with mild to warm days and cool evenings. This diurnal fluctuation of temperature, if not accompanied by a major rain storm, is conducive to an orderly snow melt, and there is a very large amount of snow to melt this spring in the Schoharie Creek headwaters.
Much of the SWE (snow water equivalent) due to ground saturation, will pass through the Schoharie Reservoir and over the Gilboa Dam via the Schoharie Creek to the Mohawk and Hudson Rivers en route to the Atlantic. The Shandaken Tunnel is closed for all intents and purposes so the equivalent of over 1.5 reservoirs full of water will be flowing north in the next few weeks. We certainly hope that it never gets above the spillway crest level of 1130' and that it stays within the “notch”. The “notch” can handle up to 8300 cfs or so before being topped and when combined with the siphon discharge of over 300 cfs, its full capacity to handle a stream flow equivalent approaching minor level flooding could be reached several times in the next few weeks.
Hopefully, there will be a “happy ending” to this year's historic snowpack, but the threat of a serious flood will persist until at least the middle of April. Below is a chart listing the “top 10” flood as measured at the Gilboa Dam. You will note that five of these floods occurred in March or April; so stay tuned, be prepared and keep your fingers crossed.
